Particle trajectories prediction (surface): Initial locations inferred from oil patch images (July 12 to Jul 22)

Oil spill response and follow up studies Particle trajectories predictions (surface): Inital locations inffered from oil patch images (July 12 to July 22)

Particle trajectories are simulated using the HYCOM model Lagrangian particle package developed at the University of Miami (in collaboration with Dr. George Halliwell;  
Velocity fields are provided by the regional, real time GoM-HYCOM model which has been running at the Naval Research Lab at the Stennis Space Center (NRL-SSC) since 2002 (Pat Hogan; and Ole-Martin Smedstad), providing forecasts of all hydrodynamic variables.
Coupling of the HYCOM-Lagrangian to the real-time GoM-HYCOM simulation provides probabilistic nowcast/forecast of particle trajectories at the surface as well as in subsurface.
This product illustrates the dominant circulation and IS NOT AN OIL SPILL PREDICTION.

On July 12, total 1324 particles were released in the observed oil patch which is provided by Chuanmin Hu of the Optical Oceanography Laboratory at the College of Marine Science, USF. With nowcast/forecast surface current fields (from the real time GOM-HYCOM) particles were followed till July 22. Although no oil properties are included, a crude parameterization of particle evaporation has been added, with time scale of 5days for the 50%  of particles disappearing.
Projected particle concentration was calculated with the number of particles in the area of 0.01x0.01 deg over the time period of July 12 to July 22.  Red denotes regions where we expect the highest concentrations of the particles and the cooler colors, like magenta, are regions where we expect to find low concentrations of the particles.
 (also see the surface circulation)

Villy Kourafalou —
HeeSook Kang| —